自 2025 年 10 月的峰值以来，比特币的价值已下跌一半以上，截至发稿时已跌至约 63,000 美元。目前，其价格基本上维持在 58,000 美元至 63,000 美元之间的狭窄区间。
The decline stems mostly from mounting geopolitical tension that built after the peak—the U.S.-China tariff war and the unresolved West Asia conflict—which pulled capital out of Bitcoin.
此后，地缘政治方面的情绪已经稳定下来，但主要持有者的举动让人怀疑是否会出现可持续的反弹。 Michael Saylor’s Strategy recently sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin to fund a dividend payment, sharpening that uncertainty.链上数据提供了更清晰的答案。 <风格> @media only 屏幕和（最小宽度：0px）和（最小高度：0px）{ div[id^="bsa-zone_1774359638628-7_123456"] { 最小高度：50px； 过渡：最小高度 0.3 秒缓和； } } @media only 屏幕和（最小宽度：640px）和（最小高度：0px）{ div[id^="bsa-zone_1774359638628-7_123456"] { 最小高度：90px； } } <按钮 onclick=" var el = document.getElementById('amb-ad-inline-content'); el.style.maxHeight = el.scrollHeight + 'px'; requestAnimationFrame(function() { el.style.maxHeight = '0'; el.style.marginTop = '0'; el.style.marginBottom = '0'; }); ">AD <矩形宽度=“10”高度=“10”rx=“5”填充=“当前颜色”/><路径填充=“#000000”d=“M6.883 6.317a.4.4 0 1 1-.566.566L5 5.566 3.683 6.883a.4.4 0 1 1-.566-.566L4.434 5 3.117 3.683a.4.4 0 1 1 .566-.566L5 4.434l1.317-1.317a.4.4 0 1 1 .566.566L5.566 5z" />比特币的明显需求预示着安静的积累
尽管存在资金外流，但比特币 30 天的明显需求表明该资产正在悄然增长。
自 6 月 3 日以来，买家已购买了约 200,000 个比特币，将表观需求从 -275,000 个比特币提升至 -75,000 个比特币。 The metric measures the gap between newly issued Bitcoin and the supply that has stayed inactive.
Source: CryptoQuant 上涨反映了一定程度的积累，尽管它不足以确认牛市。
图表上的表观需求仍处于负值区域。在该指标转为正数之前，看起来不太可能出现实质性运行，特别是在向正值的向上推动力仍然疲弱的情况下。目前，这一趋势需要谨慎而非看涨，而且市场尚未证实其他情况。
结构暗示下行空间有限
从结构上看，有迹象表明，加密货币之王进一步下跌的可能性较低。
Bitcoin has found a base at the lower band (green line) of the Bollinger Bands, a level that has often played a critical support role once price trades there for a stretch.
布林线在图表上反复标记反弹点。 Each of the last five instances, circled in red, typically carried price to the blue or upper red line—levels that currently sit at $69,928 and $82,544.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, on the other hand, suggests a rally may not materialize soon, with Bitcoin more likely to tick slightly lower or consolidate further within its present range.
The MACD blue line crossing the orange line—while holding a narrow gap—implies Bitcoin keeps trading in the direction it currently sits, between $58,000 and $63,000, before any surge materializes.这也表明极端暴跌的可能性仍然很小。
比特币季节指数和外汇储备保持平静
The market has not entered a Bitcoin season, the euphoric stretch where the asset prints fresh local highs and potentially tests an all-time high.
The index tracking this currently reads 52, lending modest support to the view that select altcoins are drawing renewed capital flow.
来源：CryptoQuant 鉴于外汇储备供应量总体下降，比特币目前的抛售压力可能会减轻。图表上的可用比特币数量已从 271.5 万个下降至约 270.7 万个。 目前，资本流动表明情绪稳定，随着逐渐下跌趋势保持稳定，比特币看起来将保持平静。
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